Oil drops as US tariff uncertainty clouds demand, Iran nuclear talks eyed

London, Feb 23, 2026 – Oil prices fell over 1% on Monday as the U.S. and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks, easing fears of an escalating conflict, while President Donald Trump’s fresh tariff hikes created uncertainty for global growth and fuel demand.

Brent crude futures slid 73 cents, or 1%, to $71.03 a barrel by 0849 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $65.73 a barrel, down 75 cents, or 1.1%.

“With the next, and possibly last, round of the Iranian nuclear talks not until Thursday, focus is on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down import tariffs and the subsequent reaction from the government,” PVM Oil Associate analyst Tamas Varga said.

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency said it would halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday.

However, Trump said on Saturday he would raise a temporary tariff from 10% to 15% on U.S. imports from all countries, the maximum level allowed under the law, after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff programme.

“The tariff news over the weekend has resulted in some risk aversion flows this morning, which can be viewed in the price of gold and U.S. equity futures and this is weighing on the crude oil price,” IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.

Meanwhile, Iran and the U.S. will hold a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva, Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said on Sunday. 

Growing concerns of a military conflict pushed Brent and WTI prices up more than 5% last week.

Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concession on its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, a senior Iranian official told Reuters.

“This morning’s weakness is a defensive move, and needless to say, with the uncertainty surrounding a U.S. military intervention in Iran, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and now the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision, oil price direction is not (clear), but volatility is guaranteed,” PVM’s Varga said.

.Goldman Sachs said the global oil market was expected to remain in surplus in 2026, assuming no Iran-related disruption to supply, while raising its Brent and WTI forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 by $6 to $60 and $56 a barrel, respectively, citing lower OECD inventories.

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