Lagos, July 10, 2026 – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected 4.7% global headline inflation rate for 2026
The IMF disclosed this its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update.
It said the inflation rate is to increase from 4.1% in 2025 driven primarily by elevated commodity and surging energy prices—compounded by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The IMF also projected global growth at 3.0 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027, down from the average of 3.5 per cent recorded in 2024–2025.
The Fund said the economic impact of the Middle East crisis varies significantly depending on a country’s exposure to the conflict and its position in the technology value chain.
“Energy exporters outside the conflict zone benefit from favourable terms of trade, whereas economies benefiting from the technology-led upturn experience stronger activity even if they are energy importers.
“In contrast, activity weakens for energy importers with limited participation in the technology value chain, a group that includes many low-income countries,” it said.
The report warned that renewed escalation of conflict in the Middle East loomed large and could prolong commodity price volatility, disrupt supply chains, and tighten financial conditions.
