Lagos, July 26, 2026 – Nigeria demonstrated significantly stronger macroeconomic shock absorption in Q2 2026, but the economy remains insulated, not immune.
This is the conclusion of EA-Proshare’s Q2 2026 Country Watch compendium which examined Nigeria’s economy through three interconnected lenses.
The report, which was released on Saturday, reviewed the shocks the country confronted in the second quarter of 2026, how economic outcomes compared with earlier forecasts, and how national developments translated into household living costs across the states
It said Nigeria absorbed its largest oil-price shock since 2022 without an exchange-rate crisis, reserve depletion or material liquidity disruption during the review period.
Brent crude reached an intraday high of US$114.44 per barrel in May before retreating to approximately US$73 at the end of the quarter.
“Despite the disruption, the naira remained broadly stable, the NFEM-to-BDC premium narrowed to N29 per dollar, or 2.11% of NFEM, and gross external reserves rose to US$51.46bn, their highest level in 17 years,” it said.
The report said the country’s macroeconomic recovery remained intact during the period as the real GDP expanded by 3.89% in Q1 2026, compared with 3.13% in Q1 2025.
“However, EA-Proshare revised its full-year growth forecast from 5.55% to 4.50%, reflecting slower credit transmission, fiscal crowding out and the effect of elevated borrowing requirements on private-sector activity,” it said.
The review also reported that inflation stability improved during the period, but said single digits will take longer to achieve.
“Headline inflation remained within a 15% to 16% band during the period reviewed, even as energy prices rose sharply.
“EA-Proshare now considers single-digit inflation more likely from Q1 2027 at the earliest, subject to continued FX stability, lower commodity-price pressure, a normal harvest season and the delayed effect of monetary-policy easing.
The report said the equities market outperformed expectations during the quarter as
the NGX All-Share Index reached approximately 229,420 points by the end of June, coming within 8% of EA-Proshare’s original full-year target.
“The end-2026 target has consequently been revised upward to 285,000 points.
“However, the transition to T+1 settlement and FTSE Russell’s review of Nigeria’s planned Frontier Market reclassification introduce important market-structure risks that investors must continue to monitor.”.
The quarterly report said fiscal financing is emerging as the binding constraint in the economy as
Nigeria’s N68.32 trillion 2026 budget carries a financing gap of N31.46 trillion
“Tax revenue rose to N16.80 trillion in the first five months of 2026 from N10.60 trillion in the corresponding period of 2025, demonstrating genuine progress in tax compliance.
“Nevertheless, the report concludes that tax gains alone may not close the Federal Government’s funding gap.
“Without greater asset monetisation, federal-asset listings, non-debt revenue, public-private partnerships and foreign direct investment, additional capital expenditure may continue to translate into additional borrowing and tighter domestic liquidity.”
The report also said that household conditions tell a more difficult story during the period as
the national average petrol price rose by 51.80% between February and May 2026, while the average cost of a 5kg cylinder of cooking gas increased by 28.10% between February and April.
“Intercity and intracity transport costs rose by close to 20%.
“Food inflation exceeded 25% in five states and remained above the national average in 21 states.
“In Lagos, the minimum cost of a healthy diet for one adult was estimated at approximately N58, 000 monthly, consuming more than four-fifths of the N70, 000 national minimum wage before accommodation, transportation, energy or dependants are considered.
“Taken together, the four household-cost pillars of food, energy, transportation and inflation show that a single minimum-wage income cannot fund the minimum requirements of a healthy diet, cooking energy and daily mobility in most states.”
