Lagos, Aug.4, 2025 – Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can reach $450 billion by 2025 year end barring any major disruption in the economy.
Dr Muda Yusuf, the Chief Executive of the Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), made the projection on Sunday.
He said the newly based figures indicated a good prospect for the Nigerian economy in future in spite of the subdued growth rate recorded in the first quarter of 2025.
He said the economy recorded a moderate GDP growth of 3.13% in Q1 2025 against the growth rate of 3.38% recorded in 2024.
The financial expert said that going by the newly rebased figures, Nigeria’s nominal GDP at ₦372.82 trillion in 2024, represented a 41% increase over the 2019 nominal GDP.
Yusuf projected that the Nigerian economy will progressively recover from the shocks of the current economic reforms.
He, however, said the latest GDP numbers highlighted the need for the government to strengthen productivity in critical sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and trade as these sectors are essential for economic inclusion, job creation, self-reliance, economic security, and diversification.
He said the current growth rates of these sectors remained below expectations as agriculture grew by only 0.7% and manufacturing by 1.7% in Q1 2025.
“These sectors require targeted interventions to unlock their full potential and drive sustainable development.
“A review of sectoral performance in Q1 2025 shows that 37 sectors recorded growth (many however slowed), 9 sectors contracted, while 3 sectors were in recession.
“Top-performing sectors included financial services [15.3%], oil refining [11.51%], transportation [14.08], ICT [7.4%], and metal ores [25%]. The following sectors contracted: Livestock [-16.7%], fishing [-0.21%], Textiles [-1.63], Coal Mining [-22.3%], Quarry & Minerals [-21.55%], Plastics and Rubber [-3.2%], Iron & Steel [-0.35%], Air Transport [-0.81%].
“Sectors in recession include air transport, textiles, and coal mining. This follows their consistent contraction over the past few quarters,” he said.
He identified the major contributors to GDP in Q1 2025 as crop production, real estate, ICT, construction, petroleum and gas, food and beverage, financial institutions and manufacturing.
“The oil sector contributed 3.97% to GDP, while the non-oil sector accounted for 96.03%, indicating the sustained dominance of the non-oil sector in the Nigerian economy. But productivity remains a major challenge for the sector.”
Yusuf also said there was a pressing need for government to address the disconnect between the non-oil sector’s significant GDP contribution and its relatively lower contribution to government revenue.
He commended the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures anchored to a new base year of 2019.
“This re-basing exercise represents a significant milestone in Nigeria’s economic management, as it enhances the relevance, accuracy, and timeliness of national economic data, and aligns Nigeria’s statistical reporting with international best practices.
“GDP re-basing is a critical statistical exercise that updates the base year used for calculating national output, ensuring that the structure of the economy is accurately reflected in line with current realities.
“By adopting 2019 as the new base year, Nigeria’s GDP figures now incorporate recent changes in consumption patterns, production technologies, and sectoral dynamics.
“This provides a more realistic and comprehensive picture of the economy, which is essential for effective policy formulation, planning, and investment decisions.”
Yusuf called for continuous rebase exercises to ensure that the country’s economic data remained current and relevant for policy and investment decisions
He also called for continuous engagement with stakeholders like government agencies, private sector participants, researchers, and development partners as such engagement is vital for effective policy formulation and implementation.
