Beijing, Nov. 14, 2024 – Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election ushers in an America that will swashbuckle through the world like brawny sailors on shore leave.
We can expect his administration to be an emotional whirlwind of guttural, visceral attacks hurled spontaneously, rather than four years of measured, calculated approaches anchored in deeply grounded ideas about the workings of statecraft and a rules-based international order.
“America first” he swears, is his lodestar.
He may tighten export controls on advanced technologies. The day after his victory, the offshore yuan fell by as much as 1.3 per cent against the US dollar, the largest one-day drop since October 2022. Greater volatility will plague China’s markets during his term.
Given his animosity towards multilateralism, expect him to move away from President Joe Biden’s security partnerships with Asian countries to contain China.
He is likely to continue military aid for Taiwan if Taipei ramps up military spending and plans to counter any threat from Beijing to blockade Taiwan with paralysing tariffs.
But tariffs and other trade barriers have significant consequences that underscore the interdependence of the world’s two largest economies.
For Tesla, run by Key Trump supporter Elon Musk, China accounted for half of its vehicle sales and a fifth of its production capacity – the Shanghai Gigafactory is Tesla’s largest manufacturing plant.
Similar entanglements were reflected in the latest US corporate reports, with performance in China weighing heavily on earnings trajectories.
DuPont, for instance, said quarterly sales for its semiconductor business jumped by more than 20 per cent due largely to China’s growing demand.
Trump’s campaign rhetoric suggests his second term will be much like his first, only swayed by more extreme voices. (South China Morning Post)
